Without the “Old,” Will There Be a GOP?

Today Politico published a piece about something Doc and I have been discussing for some time, and that is that voters who identify as republican are generally older folks. And, well, to be blunt, they’re dying off.

In “The GOP is Dying Off, Literally,” Daniel McGraw writes,

Since the average Republican is significantly older than the average Democrat, far more Republicans than Democrats have died since the 2012 elections. To make matters worse, the GOP is attracting fewer first-time voters. Unless the party is able to make inroads with new voters, or discover a fountain of youth, the GOP’s slow demographic slide will continue election to election.

gopI’ve long wondered if party operatives have given much thought to this. Ya can’t take the “old” out of GOP and have the party survive. As the Democrats increase our base, especially with so-called millennials becoming a reliable voting bloc, the Republican base is shrinking. Not only are the olds dying, but also as the recent report from the Pew Study on Religious & Public Life

The Christian share of the U.S. population is declining, while the number of U.S. adults who do not identify with any organized religion is growing.

That’s more bad news for the GOP. Not only will their wedge issue approach no longer be as effective, but they’re also losing ground as more Americans eschew organized religion. In more bad news, Pew reports

 these changes are taking place across the religious landscape, affecting all regions of the country and many demographic groups. While the drop in Christian affiliation is particularly pronounced among young adults, it is occurring among Americans of all ages. The same trends are seen among whites, blacks and Latinos; among both college graduates and adults with only a high school education; and among women as well as men.

And as McGraw notes, if Republicans aren’t able to win over a larger share of the youth vote in the 2016 elections than they did in the 2012 election, their chances of winning no matter who runs are slim to none. I’ll let McGraw share the details and just smile:

In 2012, there were about 13 million in the 15-to-17 year-old demo who will be eligible to vote in 2016. The previous few presidential election cycles indicate that about 45 percent of these youngsters will actually vote, meaning that there will about 6 million new voters total. Exit polling indicates that age bracket has split about 65-35 in favor of the Dems in the past two elections. If that split holds true in 2016, Democrats will have picked up a two million vote advantage among first-time voters. These numbers combined with the voter death data puts Republicans at an almost 2.5 million voter disadvantage going into 2016.

The whiter and older the GOP becomes, the more likely they’ll have to change their name to the “Get off my Lawn” Party. GOMLP. Doesn’t quite roll off the tongue, now does it. He, he, he. . .

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One Response to Without the “Old,” Will There Be a GOP?

  1. Doc says:

    I hope you and the pollsters are right. Still, two and a half million votes seems like a too-slim margin, given the Rethugs’ propensity to cheat. OTOH this morning on Odious Joe Iowa Repub voters were interviewed. They didn’t seem to know much about Jeb’s positions on immigration or Common Core, but they were united in not wanting another Bush as prex. Cheerfully enough, the Dem voters blew off every insinuation about Hillary and the e-mails. They were especially adamant that Bengazi is a nowhere issue for them.

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